Rishi Sunak’s Poll Numbers Dip Below Liz Truss as Rebel MPs Warn of Potential PM Ousting if Tories Lose Over 500 Seats in Local Elections or One of Two Key Mayoral Races
Rishi Sunak faces a decisive 48-hour period as certain Tory MPs conspire to orchestrate his downfall, even amidst ongoing tallying of local election results in England.
The prospects of the Prime Minister facing a vote of no confidence from his own party surged on Thursday, following the release of the latest YouGov poll. The findings indicated a dwindling popularity for the Conservatives under Sunak’s leadership, marking a lower standing than during Liz Truss’s tumultuous premiership.
As per the survey conducted on April 30th and May 1st, the Conservatives plummeted to a mere 18 percent, trailing Labour by 26 points at 44 percent, with a narrow three-point lead over Reform UK at 15 percent.
If replicated in a general election scenario, the Tories would be reduced to a mere 32 seats, with Sir Keir Starmer commanding a formidable majority of 388, according to Electoral Calculus predictions.
Further dismal tidings emerged from a Techne UK poll of 1,632 voters, partially conducted on polling day, placing Labour at 44 percent and the Tories at 22 percent. Survey data unveiled that only 43 percent of those who supported the Tories in the 2019 election would maintain their allegiance in the next general election.
As the two-day tallying of votes commenced, Conservative MPs found their nerves on edge.
One Tory MP confided to The Independent that a challenge against Sunak is increasingly probable if either West Midlands mayor Andy Street or Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen fail to retain their positions. The stakes escalate further if both mayors are ousted, with the likelihood of the 52 necessary letters to trigger a leadership vote being dispatched to Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, a former minister explained.
This sentiment was echoed by former chancellor George Osborne on his Political Currency podcast, who remarked that while a loss for Andy Street in the West Midlands would be concerning, a defeat for Ben Houchen would signify a dire situation, possibly indicating an imminent landslide defeat for the party.
Yet, Tory MPs have indicated privately that the fate of the two mayors isn’t the sole determinant of Sunak’s survival. Some are eyeing the potential loss of over 500 of the 985 Conservative council seats up for defense, while others are wary of a potential wipeout among the 29 Tory police and crime commissioners across England.
Adding fuel to the fire, former colleague Lee Anderson, who defected to Reform after suspension for Islamophobic remarks about London mayor Sadiq Khan, has exacerbated concerns among Conservative ranks. With some Tory voters seemingly abstaining or turning to Reform, Anderson remarked, “The gap is closing.”
The faction most inclined to oust Sunak is anticipated to emerge from the party’s right wing, potentially rallying behind figures like former home secretary Suella Braverman or former home office minister Robert Jenrick. However, speculation abounds that the more moderate Penny Mordaunt has been in talks regarding a potential replacement for Sunak, aiming to lead the party into a general election.
Amidst uncertainty, there is a glimmer of hope within Tory headquarters (CCHQ), particularly with YouGov projections favoring Lord Houchen in the Tees Valley mayor race. However, the West Midlands contest remains on a knife-edge, with Andy Street holding a mere two-point lead over his Labour counterpart.
While victory in the mayoral races could offer some reprieve, Sunak’s position remains precarious, especially as Lord Houchen indicated that voters expressing support for him may not necessarily back the Conservatives in a general election, opting instead for Reform or abstaining. Results for most council elections and the Tees Valley mayor race are anticipated on Friday, while the West Midlands and London mayor votes will be tallied on Saturday.
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